Looking back at a basketball box score from a particular game can help tell the story of what happened. It can be the deciding factor in whether you are going to win or lose in sports betting, as in the case of NBA odds online betting, but remember that it might not give the full picture of what can happen later on. The problem starts when you base your decision solely on one particular game while disregarding all other factors like rhythm, injuries, player availability, shooting, and team matchup.
Knowing these different components at play when you review game statistics may help you make more sound decisions and keep you away from considering that one performance could predict the future.
Beware the Points and Shooting Percentage Trap
Rather than being obsessed with the end result, you should take a deeper look at how the team performs as a whole. The best ways to get the overall picture of a game are looking at the offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, effective field-goal percentage, true shooting percentage, and turnover rate.
Say a team clinches victory by a 15-point margin through an unprecedented shooting performance with challenging three-pointers. The team’s long-term average shooting stats might well be dramatically lower, and that could lead you to make a wrong assumption if you expect them to maintain the same efficiency in their next game.
Check Player Availability and Matchup Changes
Last night’s box score also matches up with tonight’s team lineup. Though tonight could present quite a different scenario from the previous day.
There might be a player who has gone in for a rest, a player who is getting back after a serious injury, or a player facing a minutes restriction or having to play against a completely different defensive scheme. Even a team that was very dominant yesterday might have difficulties finding its form the next day if the opponent is capable of limiting transition opportunities, or it is attacking a defensive weakness.
Compare Recent Form With Longer-Term Numbers
While recent form is definitely important, it cannot work as the sole indicator of a larger sample. You need to look at both, at a few matches and at the overall stats for the season, to decide whether the performance yesterday is a trend or a temporary result.
This method helps to assess whether the team is gradually getting better or they just got the advantage by a one-off good result from good opposition.
Use Yesterday’s Results as Evidence, Not a Prediction
What you should not ask simply is “Who was the winner” but rather “why was it that the team won and under what circumstances will those be repeated?”
Consider the quality of the opponent in question, how accurately they shot, their possession count, how many times they lost possession, ability to secure rebounds, etc., and also whether they have or haven’t had any of the key players available through the game.
Wrapping Up
Yesterday’s box score tells only the tip of the iceberg. By drawing together recent form, advanced statistics, matchup data, player availability, and long-term trends, you can arrive at a more objective interpretation of the coming game. Before the final call is put to book, spend time checking the data and thinking about uncertainty. Do not be the sole basis for your prediction a single strong or losing game.
